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Nigeria export loss to US hits ₦940.98bn in nine months as Trump tariff rises to 15%
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US imports into Nigeria surge 125.5% to ₦6.80tn, flipping trade surplus to ₦3.15tn deficit
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Non-oil exports suffer most as crude oil remains largely tariff-exempt
Nigeria’s trade relationship with the United States deteriorated sharply in 2025, with the country losing nearly ₦1 trillion in export earnings following the introduction of higher tariffs by the administration of former US President Donald Trump, official data has shown.
Findings from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that Nigeria’s exports to the US declined to ₦3.65tn between January and September 2025, down from ₦4.59tn recorded in the same period of 2024. The drop represents a 20.5 per cent decline, translating to an export loss of ₦940.98bn.
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In contrast, Nigeria’s imports from the United States more than doubled within the same period, rising from ₦3.01tn in 2024 to ₦6.80tn in 2025. This sharp increase of 125.5 per cent resulted in Nigeria recording a trade deficit of about ₦3.15tn, compared to a ₦1.57tn surplus a year earlier.
The reversal coincided with the implementation of Washington’s “reciprocal tariff” policy, which raised Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14 per cent to 15 per cent. The executive order, signed in late July 2025 and enforced from August 7, applied mainly to non-oil exports, while crude oil shipments were largely exempted.
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Data showed that while Nigeria’s exports grew steadily in 2024, the trend collapsed in 2025. Exports fell quarter-on-quarter from ₦1.54tn in Q1 to ₦1.36tn in Q2, before plunging to ₦743.63bn in Q3. Imports moved in the opposite direction, rising sharply to ₦3.22tn in Q3, further widening the trade gap.
On a year-on-year basis, exports rose marginally in the first quarter of 2025 but declined significantly in the second and third quarters, while imports from the US surged across all three quarters of the year.
Product-level analysis showed that crude petroleum oils dominated Nigeria’s exports early in 2025, alongside urea, jet fuel, and cocoa. However, by the third quarter, exports dwindled to minor agricultural and industrial products. Imports, meanwhile, were driven largely by crude petroleum oils, used vehicles, wheat, and industrial materials.
As a result, the United States dropped out of Nigeria’s top five export destinations by mid-2025, despite remaining one of the country’s largest sources of imports.
Reacting to the development, President Bola Tinubu said Nigeria would remain resilient despite the US trade policy shift, citing rising non-oil revenues as a buffer against external shocks. He insisted that the country had no reason to fear the tariff measures.
Similarly, the Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, said Nigeria would not retaliate but would instead focus on economic reforms, export diversification, and expanded trade within Africa under the AfCFTA framework.
Trade experts and economists also urged Nigeria to see the tariffs as an opportunity to deepen South–South trade, diversify export markets, and reduce dependence on the US, noting that Nigeria’s exposure to American trade remains relatively limited.
