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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts Nigeria’s inflation to dip to 26.5% in 2025 but rise sharply to 37% in 2026.
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Nigeria’s current account surplus is projected to decline significantly due to falling oil prices.
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While Fitch projects moderate gains from refinery reforms, JP Morgan warns that oil below $60 per barrel could trigger a deficit.:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted that Nigeria’s inflation rate will average 26.5% in 2025 before surging to 37% in 2026, according to its April 2025 World Economic Outlook.
The projection follows a recent rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). While the 2025 figure marks a drop from 33.2% in 2024, the Fund warned that inflation remains far from stable.
In the same report, the IMF painted a cautious picture of Nigeria’s external position.
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The country’s current account surplus, which stood at 9.1% of GDP in 2024, is projected to narrow to 6.9% in 2025 and fall further to 5.2% in 2026.
Though the Central Bank of Nigeria reported a $6.83 billion Balance of Payments surplus in 2024, driven largely by a $17.22 billion surplus in the current and capital accounts, this outlook may be threatened by oil market volatility.
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JP Morgan cautioned that sustained oil prices below the $60 per barrel breakeven could push Nigeria into a deficit, while Fitch Ratings projects a more optimistic 3.3% average surplus supported by refinery and energy reforms.
On growth, the IMF revised Nigeria’s GDP forecast downward from 3.4% in 2024 to 3.0% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026, citing a decline in expected oil earnings. Despite this growth, real per capita income is expected to rise only marginally—by 0.6% in 2025 and 0.3% in 2026—underscoring the country’s persistent inequality and limited improvement in living standards.
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