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Dangote Refinery impact projected to lift Nigeria’s non-oil GDP by 1.5% in 2026.
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IMF outlook links refinery operations to jobs, industrial growth and forex savings.
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Economic diversification drive positions Nigeria for stronger GDP rebound.
The International Monetary Fund has projected that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery will add about 1.5 per cent to Nigeria’s non-oil gross domestic product in 2026, describing the facility as a major catalyst for economic diversification.
In its latest outlook, the IMF said the refinery’s contribution would play a key role in Nigeria’s efforts to strengthen non-oil growth and reclaim its position as Africa’s third-largest economy, with total GDP expected to reach approximately $334 billion.
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The Fund noted that the economic impact of the $20 billion Lekki-based refinery extends beyond fuel production, highlighting what it described as a strong “multiplier effect” across multiple sectors of the economy.
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According to the IMF, the refinery is expected to support more than 100,000 direct and indirect jobs, boosting activities in logistics, services, retail and other connected industries.
The facility is also projected to drive industrial expansion by supplying critical feedstock to downstream sectors, including petrochemicals, agriculture and manufacturing.
The IMF said the production of polypropylene and polyethylene would strengthen Nigeria’s plastics and packaging industries, while integration with the fertilizer plant would help stabilise urea supply for the agricultural sector.
It added that improved access to industrial chemicals and solvents would benefit pharmaceutical, textile and other manufacturing firms.
Beyond industry, the scale of the project has triggered significant infrastructure development in the Lekki-Epe corridor, including road upgrades and the construction of an extensive sub-sea pipeline network spanning about 1,100 kilometres.
Real estate analysts, according to the report, have also observed rising property demand in Ibeju-Lekki and surrounding areas, driven by the influx of skilled workers and businesses into the Lekki Free Trade Zone.
The IMF further stressed that the refinery’s role in reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel would have major fiscal benefits.
At full capacity, the refinery is expected to save the country an estimated $10 billion annually in foreign exchange, easing pressure on the Central Bank’s reserves.
The Fund said lower demand for dollars to import refined petroleum products would support naira stability in 2026, reduce production costs for non-oil manufacturers and improve overall business confidence.
