IMF’s 3% Growth Forecast Falls Short of Nigeria’s Potential

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.2% to 3.0%, citing lower global oil prices as a significant risk.

• The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has questioned the rationale behind the IMF’s downgrade, arguing that Nigeria’s economy has diversified beyond oil.

The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has expressed skepticism over the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) downgraded economic growth forecast for Nigeria in 2025.

The IMF had revised its forecast downward from 3.2% to 3.0%, citing projected lower global oil prices as a significant risk to the country’s fiscal and external balances.

IMPI’s Chairman, Omoniyi Akinsiju, faulted the downgrade, arguing that Nigeria’s economy has diversified beyond oil. “We wonder how a single factor can be responsible for the projected massive decline in the size of an economy, moreso, when Nigeria is moving away from its dependency on crude oil earnings,” the group stated.

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IMPI favors the World Bank’s projection of 3.6% growth in 2025, attributing it to the expected improvement in non-oil sectors, such as financial services, telecommunications, and information technology, as well as easing inflationary pressures and improved business sentiment.

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The group urged Nigerians not to take the IMF’s negative economic projections very seriously, citing instances where the IMF’s projections have proven inaccurate.

“We find comfort in the submission of the US Department of State, which described Nigeria as an economic miracle while commending the federal government’s ongoing reforms,” IMPI added.

The group acknowledged concerns about poverty reduction but insisted that the current federal administration offers a possibility of reducing the number of Nigerians living below the poverty line.