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Nigeria’s GDP growth projected at 4.4% in 2026 and 2027, the fastest pace in over a decade, driven by services, agriculture, and non-oil industries.
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Economic reforms and prudent monetary policy expected to strengthen macroeconomic stability, improve investor confidence, and support fiscal revenue.
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Sub-Saharan Africa growth forecast at 4.3% in 2026, with global growth moderating to 2.6% before rising to 2.7% in 2027.
The World Bank has retained Nigeria’s economic growth forecast at 4.4% for both 2026 and 2027, reflecting sustained optimism about the country’s medium-term outlook despite ongoing structural challenges. The projection was outlined in the Global Economic Prospects report released in January 2026, consistent with the Bank’s Nigeria Development Update (NDU) October 2025 report.
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For 2026, the Bank upgraded its previous forecast from 3.7% to 4.4%, citing improving macroeconomic conditions, including a rebound in agricultural production, sustained growth in the services sector, and a modest pick-up in non-oil industrial activities.
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The Bank highlighted ongoing economic reforms, especially in the tax system, alongside prudent monetary policy, as key drivers for supporting activity, strengthening fiscal revenue, and improving macroeconomic stability. These measures are expected to enhance investor confidence, reduce inflation, and offset lower international oil prices through higher domestic oil output.
The forecast underscores Nigeria’s ongoing efforts to diversify its economy away from oil dependence, with a stronger services sector and improved agricultural output expected to create jobs, stabilize prices, and broaden government revenue over time.
Regionally, the Bank projected Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth at 4.3% in 2026, while globally, economic growth is expected to moderate to 2.6% in 2026 before rising slightly to 2.7% in 2027, reflecting improving financial conditions, moderating inflation, and robust performance in emerging markets despite geopolitical and climate risks.
Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 3.46% year-on-year in Q3 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), signaling a steady path toward sustained recovery and growth.
