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World Bank projects Nigeria’s poverty rate to hit 62% by 2026, representing 141 million Nigerians.
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Inflation, weak growth, and economic instability remain the biggest poverty drivers.
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Bank urges sustained fiscal and monetary reforms to prevent further deterioration.
The World Bank has projected that 141 million Nigerians will be living in poverty by 2026, citing persistent inflation, slow economic growth, and instability as major economic threats.
In its latest Nigeria Development Update (NDU) report released on Thursday, the global financial institution said the country’s poverty rate is expected to climb to 62 percent in 2026, before marginally easing to 61 percent in 2027.
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“Still timid growth and remaining inflationary pressure, particularly from food prices, are expected to further push poverty up,” the report stated.
The Bank warned that while inflation may decline gradually in the coming years, it will remain elevated in the near term, requiring sustained monetary tightening.
“Price pressures are expected to remain elevated, necessitating sustained monetary policy efforts to re-anchor inflation expectations,” the World Bank said.
It projected that inflation would fall from 23.8 percent in 2025 to 15.8 percent in 2027, supported by tighter monetary policies and easing pressures from exchange rates and fuel prices.
However, the report cautioned that the disinflation path remains vulnerable to risks such as exchange rate volatility, supply shocks, and global market instability.
On Nigeria’s fiscal trajectory, the World Bank predicted that the country’s fiscal deficit will average 2.8 percent of GDP between 2026 and 2027 — slightly below the 3 percent threshold — helped by tax reform gains and increased non-oil revenue.
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The report noted that the fiscal position is likely to stay “broadly neutral” as new revenue inflows are balanced by higher social spending and capital investments.
According to the Bank’s analysis, average household consumption in Nigeria dropped by 6.7 percent between 2019 and 2023 due to policy missteps and external shocks.
Using data from the Nigeria Living Standards Survey (NLSS) 2022/23, the report revealed that 56 percent of Nigerians were already poor in 2023 — up from 40 percent in 2019.
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Regional breakdowns show a stark divide:
Over 80 percent of residents in the North-East live in poverty.
Only about 32 percent of people in the South-South are poor.
The World Bank also noted a disturbing rise in ultra-poverty, where individuals cannot meet basic caloric needs even if all their income is spent on food. The rate of ultra-poverty reportedly jumped from 14 percent to 27 percent between 2019 and 2023 — equivalent to 139 million Nigerians.
While acknowledging ongoing fiscal reforms, the Bank stressed that stronger monetary discipline, agricultural expansion, and targeted social protection programmes are crucial to reversing Nigeria’s poverty trend.
“Without inclusive growth and effective safety nets, millions more Nigerians could be trapped in poverty over the next decade,” it warned.
